The Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council (Council) is seeking proposals from qualified contractors to conduct a comprehensive technical review of confidence interval methods used in the Percent Change Approach for setting recreational measures for summer flounder, scup, and black sea bass. The proposal submission deadline is May 18, 2026.
Background
The Percent Change Approach is used to establish recreational management measures – including bag, size, and season limits – by comparing expected harvest to the average Recreational Harvest Limit (RHL). A critical component of this process is the application of a confidence interval around harvest estimates, which determines the required level of change in management measures. Currently, the Recreation Demand Model (RDM) is the primary tool for generating these estimates and associated confidence intervals.
This technical review is intended to address recent questions regarding the appropriate calculation and application of confidence intervals, which have varied considerably across species and years. The review will occur during an interim year to develop scientifically robust guidance for future specifications cycles, including considerations for the planned transition to catch-based management in 2030 and pending revisions to Marine Recreational Information Program (MRIP) data.
Scope of Work
The selected contractor will work with Council and Commission staff and a project oversight team. Key responsibilities include:
Literature and Methods Review: Review existing joint-distribution MRIP-based and RDM-based methods used to calculate confidence intervals.
Evaluation of Alternative Approaches: Evaluate alternative confidence interval levels and methods and analyze the sensitivity of management outcomes and overfishing risks to these alternatives.
Assessment of Uncertainty Sources: Assess how MRIP estimation uncertainty, stock assessment model structures, and data availability affect confidence intervals.
Recommendations: Develop clear recommendations for appropriate confidence interval levels and methods for each species, including criteria for future re-evaluations.
Briefing Materials and Report: Prepare a written technical report and concise briefing materials for presentation to the Council, Commission, and various technical committees.
Additional Information
Complete details regarding contractor qualifications, the detailed scope of work, and proposal submission instructions are available in the full Request for Proposals.
Full Request for Proposals: Technical Review of Confidence Interval Methods for the Percent Change Approach