Estimated Catch of Blueline Tilefish in the Mid-Atlantic Region: Application of the Delphi Survey Process

While commercial blueline tilefish data is available from standard sources (dealer/vessel trip reports), blueline tilefish are almost totally absent from MRIP data and it is believed that considerable underreporting has occurred in for-hire vessel trip reports (VTRs). To address this, the Council held a facilitated workshop in 2016 with individuals knowledgeable about the recreational blueline tilefish fishery to develop recreational blueline tilefish catch estimates through an iterative Delphi technique approach. The goal of this workshop was to estimate the total catch by the recreational sector (private anglers, charter boats, and headboats) of blueline tilefish in the Mid-Atlantic region in 2015.

Final Report

About the Delphi Method

The Delphi technique is a scientifically accepted method for gathering data from a group with expert knowledge when the issue in question, such as recreational catch, has limited empirical data on which to draw. The Delphi technique was originally developed by the RAND Corporation in the 1950s to assess the potential effects of military strategies when historic data on possible reactions by other countries were not available. Since then, the process has been refined and applied to assess the potential effects of many different types of government and private sector activities, decisions, and policies.

The classic Delphi process aims to achieve consensus across a range of people and opinions through the use of anonymous questionnaires delivered over multiple rounds of surveys. In a Delphi study, the answers to specific questions - such as best estimates of recreational catch - are processed, summarized and sent back to the panelists in a new questionnaire. The panelists can reinforce, change or modify their previous responses based on the response and input from the rest of the group. The questionnaires are administered anonymously and panelists are not aware of the identity of the other participants, to prevent bias.